jeudi 7 juillet 2016

How China views the US elections #trump #clinton

Policymakers in Beijing are not buying into the threats lobbed their way by US presidential candidates. But that does not mean the Chinese legislators do not take the elections seriously.




In fact, the point of view of China's current race can strike many Americans as familiar: presumptive Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton is regularly considered all Donald Trump is an unknown entity which is treated as having a worrying level volatility "the devil we know," experts told CNBC. "At the end of the day, I think (Chinese leaders) are uncertain about what China-US relations will be under a presumptive candidates: What they have heard to date is mainly oriented campaign needs, "said Kenneth Lieberthal, a China policy expert and senior fellow emeritus at the Brookings reflection policy.

Gow Chinese views the US elections

Yet Chinese leaders consider Clinton as a fundamentally consistent politician, which means that even if his actions are contrary to the interests of China, at least they can be anticipated. "It is predictable, they usually know how it approaches China: There are aspects they do not like about it, but they usually know what to expect," said Glaser. This view was echoed by senior advisor of Tsinghua University Dzodin Harvey, who suggested China Daily that China could see the election as "between the devil and the deep blue sea." "They do not like (Trump) proclamations about what he would do in terms of tariffs on Chinese goods, and he would go after China on economic and trade issues. But that being said, I do not think there are many who think it may carry out what he speaks, or even if he knows whereof he speaks. "

Beijing has learned over the years to wait for American candidates to make anti-China postures while they are in the countryside, so that the Chinese leaders have learned to reserve judgment until a new president is installed in the office, according to experts.
"I go around in Asia, and the region is riveted: Everyone is riveted on hell that will be our next president ... but the Chinese, I do not think are as obsessed with it," said Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia and Director of China Power project at the Center for strategic and international studies. "they are obsessed with themselves and the problems they face."

Yet Chinese assessments Trump are colorful and varied: He is described as a "kind of irrational," whose mouth is too small, employing a "childish style of speaking," It is considered as a candidate who "bring changes in Sino-US relationship, "but that embodies" pragmatism "despite his" sad record of success as a businessman. "

Some Chinese officials watching Clinton - a former cabinet member of President Barack Obama - as the candidate who would bring continuity in US-Sino relations, but this statement does not take into account differences between it and the old boss. Clinton not only generally considered more hawkish than Obama on the issues of projecting American power abroad, but it has shown a pattern of criticizing China on issues related to human rights. This history extends all the way to a 1995 speech sparked controversy in Beijing until 2015 tweet about the persecution of the country's feminists. Trump has vowed to take the fight to China by imposing high tariffs on its products, but many in Beijing are not sure it would be a bad thing for their country. "Donald Trump is a surprise" to Chinese officials, Lieberthal said. "They do not like his proclamations about what he would do in terms of tariffs on Chinese goods, and he would go after China on economic and trade issues. But that being said, I think not that there are many who think it can not comply with what he speaks, or even if he knows whereof he speaks. "
While Chinese leaders may have a general idea of ​​the world view of Clinton and whose advice it takes, they are largely in the dark about the personal preferences of Trump, Lieberthal said.

Trump has Chinese Fans

Trump and his fans in China: It is well publicized that Chinese Internet group arise during the primary season, including "Donald Trump Super Fans Club" and "God Emperor Trump." Such an account on Weibo microblogging site, whose name translates to "Trump Global Fans Club," alternates between praising foreign policy and praising the physical attributes of his daughter.

But part of that admiration online is probably at least partly ironic.
"Chinese consider Trump as a clown, funny and unscrupulous," Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at China's Renmin University, wrote in a short op-ed in the Communist Party-controlled Global Times. Yet there is a population in China which is actively rooting for Trump because they think it will better serve the interests of their country, according to Glaser, who cited four aspects of the history and rhetoric of candidates that lead to this conclusion.

Trump criticized the US alliances with Japan and Korea, which suggests that these countries should pay for their own defense. If any of these cooperation agreements is weakened, the argument, China may be able to further assert itself in the geopolitics of the region - not to mention the benefits of local rivals suddenly forced to spend more for defense. Under Obama, the United States has spent more time and money influence in Asia, and many in China have come to see the focus as a threat to their own rise. However, Trump focused his speec

h on the state and Islamic terrorism, leading some to conclude that Beijing may scale back Obama's pivot to Asia so he can divert assets in the Middle East. Some in China believe that Trump, who made his name as a businessman before turning into reality TV and politics, would approach the foreign policy of a "transactional" way, according to Glaser. This idea appealed to many in China, she said, because it means that everything is up for negotiation - there is no ideological red lines.

Finally, most Chinese expect Clinton to provide regular human rights concerns with China, but they "think they would get a pass" on these issues within the framework Trump. "Who has heard Donald Trump say anything about human rights?" Glaser asked. A poll in May found that more than 60 percent of mainland Chinese and partly abroad say they support Trump, while only about 8 percent expressed a preference for Clinton.
Chinese citizens seem "Trump prefer Clinton. This is understandable as it criticized China a number of times in cyber security, human rights and so on, "Jia Qingguo, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University , wrote in the global Times. "Trump, on the other hand, is a mystery to Chinese. Although he expressed dissatisfaction with current policies of the United States and China, he hopes to strengthen ties with China. "

"It means openly Trump made him love many in the United States, largely as a result of the deception of the public with the American-style democracy. A growing number of US citizens realize that behind the rhetoric democracy is primarily a glib mouth. " -Yin Jiwu, associate professor, wrote in China Daily Yet the success of Trump so far proved to be a propaganda boon for Beijing, as several reports and editorials highlight its ascent as proof that democracy is a flawed system of governance.

Such editorial, published in the part controlled by Global Times, said that Trump had opened "Pandora's box" in the society of the United States with his rhetoric "abusively racist and extremist."

"Big-mouthed, anti-traditional, abusively frank, it is a perfect populist who could easily provoke the audience. Despite promises of candidates, Americans know the elections can not really change their lives. So why not support Trump and vent their spleen? " the editorial said, warning that "the rise of racism in American politics worried the world." Many observers, both inside and outside the country, found that the candidacy of Trump could affect the long-term popular perceptions of democracy.

"It means openly Trump made him loved by many in the United States, largely as a result of public disappointment with the American style democracy," Yin Jiwu, associate professor at the University of Studies Foreign Beijing wrote in China Daily. "A growing number of US citizens realize that behind the rhetoric of democracy is primarily a glib mouth."

source :
Harvard 
CNB
http://marketstudychina.blogspot.com/2016/03/7tweets-to-understand-chinese-market.html


Aucun commentaire:

Publier un commentaire